IHT: Russia blames the victim

International Herald TribuneWAR WITH GEORGIARussia blames the victimBy Svante E. CornellAugust 12, 2008WASHINGTON:Russia is portraying its war in Georgia as a legitimate response toGeorgia's incursion last week into its breakaway region of SouthOssetia. Many in the West, while condemning the disproportionate natureof Russia's response, are also critical of Georgian President MikheilSaakashvili for his attempts to bring South Ossetia back under Georgianrule, and of the United States for supposedly encouraging Saakashvili'srisk-taking by pushing NATO membership for Georgia.But the truth is that for the past several months, Russia, not Georgia,has been stoking tensions in South Ossetia and another of Georgia'sbreakaway areas, Abkhazia. After NATO held a summit meeting in Bucharestin April - at which Georgia and Ukraine received positive signs ofpotential membership - President Vladimir Putin of Russia signed adecree effectively treating Abkhazia and South Ossetia as parts of theRussian Federation. This was a direct violation of Georgia's territorialintegrity.It came after years of growing Russian efforts to assert control overthese regions, for example by distributing Russian passports to citizensand arranging the appointment of Russians to the territories'governments. Putin, who is now Russia's prime minister, oversaw abuild-up of Russian "peacekeeping" forces in Abkhazia, which was clearlyintended to provoke Georgia into a military response.Yet Georgia showed restraint - in large part because Saakashviliunderstood that military adventurism would harm his NATO prospects.Moscow, in turn, transferred its efforts to South Ossetia, wherepro-Russian rebels carried out attacks on Georgian forces and villages,finally provoking the response that Moscow had sought as a pretext tointervene.Now Moscow has sent out the Black Sea fleet to Georgia's coast andbroadened the war into Abkhazia and Georgia proper, showing thatMoscow's war is not just about South Ossetia. In any case, Moscow's owntreatment of separatism - killing tens of thousands of Chechens over thepast decade - says volumes about its claims that it is just trying toprotect a minority population.This war is about making an example in Georgia, about the consequencespost-Soviet countries will suffer for standing up to Moscow, conductingdemocratic reforms and seeking military and economic ties with the West.No Eurasian country has come so far as Georgia in recent years in termsof democratization and reform.Georgia has the third-largest contingent of forces in Iraq, and beforethis crisis it had pledged to send forces to Afghanistan.If Georgia is allowed to fall, governments across Eurasia will certainlytake note, especially those - such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Ukraine- that have built ties with the West and sought closer integration inEuropean institutions, drawing Moscow's ire.Should the United States allow Russia to occupy Georgia or even justdepose the Saakashvili government, the implications for America'sstanding in Eurasia would be dire. Washington would risk losing thesupport of the post-Soviet states of Central Asia that are cooperatingwith the American mission in Afghanistan, along with hopes of westwardexports of more Central Asian energy.Many who might agree with this analysis nonetheless shrug theirshoulders over solutions. Indeed, we have no real military optionsagainst Russia. But we can put together a meaningful comprehensivereaction, attaching real costs to Russia for its policies.America must hit where it hurts: Russia's international prestige, anobsession of Putin's. To begin with, we must do everything possible tosee Russia's membership in the Group of 8 be suspended (something theRepublican presidential hopeful John McCain called for even before thiscrisis).Once the fighting is over, America must step up its campaign for NATOmembership for Georgia and Ukraine. Should European countries reject theidea, America could designate them "major non-NATO allies," along thelines of Israel and Pakistan. This would involve more American militarytrainers in Georgia, intelligence sharing, joint exercises and othersteps, if not a full pledge by Washington to defend the country in caseof attack.Finally, in a measure of fitting symbolism, America must note thatRussia started this war on the opening day of the Olympics, while itplans to hold its own Winter Olympics only a dozen miles from the victimof its aggression. America should seriously consider announcing aboycott of the 2014 Sochi Olympics. We owe our Georgian allies nothing less.Svante E. Cornell is the research director of the Central Asia-CaucasusInstitute at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced InternationalStudies.http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/12/opinion/edcornell.php