CEASEFIRE IN GEORGIA
Putin Outmaneuvers the West
By Christian Neef
Russia's strongman Vladimir Putin has achieved his goal in Georgia --the country has been destabilized. And the West will have to look onpowerless when its ally, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, iseventually driven from office.
The march on Tbilisi has been called off, if such plans ever existed.Russian President Dimitry Medvedev has announced the end of militaryoperations in the Caucasus for the time being. According to sources inMoscow, some in the Russian military found it very painful to have tohalt the advance just 90 kilometers from the office of GeorgianPresident Mikhail Saakashvili. The hardliners would have loved nothingmore than to do a bit of clearing up in the headquarters of thisGeorgian hothead.
But hasn't Russia already achieved everything it had set out toachieve? Moscow will now argue that it has fulfilled its "peacekeepingmission" as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin puts it, and that ithas stuck to international agreements regarding the Caucasus byprotecting one side and restraining the other. Now only one taskremains -- Saakashvili needs to go, say the Russians.And that poses the next quandary for the West. Russia will now stressits readiness to enter negotiations, but only on one condition -- thatSaakashvili quits. The Russians will demand that the West (andespecially the Americans) let their their darling go.
Russia had already indicated its position on Monday when Putin drewparallels between Saakashvili and Saddam Hussein. One could understandthat the Americans had hanged the criminal Saddam, said Putin. But headded that it was a scandal that the US had a totally different stancein the case of Saakashvilli and had even provided eight aircraft totransport the Georgian soldiers stationed in Iraq to join the fightingin Georgia.
So Moscow is calling for Saakashvili's head as a precondition forresolving the conflict -- and the West dearly wants a resolution. Butthe West accedes to Moscow's demand, it will publicly embarrassitself. On the other hand such an outcome would be logical. Ascolumnist Bruce Anderson wrote in Britain's Independent newspaper: "Indiplomacy, strategy and geopolitics, our political leaders have beenguilty of multiple failures over many years." All the talk about apossible Georgian membership of NATO only encouraged Tbilisi to embarkon its military adventure. Saakashvili already felt like a full NATOpartner and thought he could provoke Russia without punishment. Andthe Russians thought it was time to teach him a lesson.
No one in NATO is likely to have even considered hurling themselvesinto the breach for tiny Georgia. The Americans need Russia to helpthem keep Iran in line. With its show of military might Moscow hasreminded the West where part of its oil and gas come from. And it hasshown the countries in the gray zone between East and West -- Georgia,Ukraine and the former Soviet Central Asian states -- that it makes nosense to seek protection from a West that only gives empty promises.
It's true, security guarantees and pledges of solidarity aren't worthmuch if they run counter to the West's own strategic interests. ThePoles know that all too well -- they hoped in vain for help from theirfriends in 1939, the British and the French, when Hitler and Stalininvaded their country.Since peeling away from Georgia in a 1990-1992 war, South Ossetia hasbeen de facto independent. Russians participated in a mixedpeacekeeping force following a ceasefire agreement in 1992. Althoughunder international law the breakaway region of Abkhazia is part ofGeorgia, it is financially backed by Russia. Most Abkhazians holdRussian passports.Russia is in a difficult position. Moscow warned the West againstrecognizing Kosovo's declaration of independence earlier this year,saying that similar declarations among former Soviet satellites wouldresult. The Russian argument that South Ossetia has a right toautonomy, however, was never extended to Chechnya. The West recognizedKosovo over Russian protest. Now the Kremlin's revenge may well be toofficially acknowledge South Ossetia's independence fromThe US takes Georgia's side in the conflict. Americans considerPresident Mikhail Saakashvili a faithful ally, and US militaryadvisors support him given Georgian participation in the Iraq war. USPresident Bush has accused Russia of a "disproportionate" response andUS Ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad said Russia was following a"campaign of terror." Russia has rejected the accusations.
The UN Security Council could not agree on a position regarding thesituation proposed by Russia Friday. The Russian document urgedGeorgia and South Ossetia to cease fighting immediately. Russiarequested the council's Friday emergency meeting. Since then, debatein the Security Council has degenerated into a tit-for-tat betweenRussia and the United States.Members did not reach an agreement on the text proposed by Russia. TheSecurity Council nevertheless expressed its alarm over the escalationof the conflict. The Russian proposal requested "immediate cessationof violence" and a return to the negotiating table. Georgia, backed upby the US, viewed the proposal as hemming its opportunity to defenditself. So no agreement was reached.But amid all the tragedy, Saakashvili's behavior does have abeneficial element. The Caucasus conflict may now trigger a deeperdebate in the West about how to deal with the states of the formerSoviet Union. It would probably have been better if Europe had beenquicker to bind Georgia and the Ukraine to the European Union. ButBrussels thought that was "premature" while both countries were busytalking about NATO membership.The Russians are on the home stretch. Georgia is destabilized andTbilisi may well soon have a pro-Russian government. The Germans won'tbe playing much of a role in the diplomatic wrangling over the nextfew weeks even if Chancellor Angela Merkel's summit meeting withMedvedev in Sochi on Friday does focus solely on the Georgianquestion. German foreign ministry state secretary Gernot Erlerdefended the meeting by saying Medvedev was the man to talk to onforeign policy affairs. "Medvedev takes the decisions," said Erler,even though he knows that is not the case. Merkel may be travelling toSochi but the man who pulls the strings -- Prime Minister VladimirPutin -- will be sitting 1,800 kilometers north of there, in Moscow.
That is evident not only in Putin's crisis management regardingGeorgia but in all his moves to intervene in foreign policy sinceMedvedev took power. At the end of May, it was Putin who made theimportant trip to France, the current holder of the rotating EUpresidency, not Medvedev, as previously announced. It was Putin whotalked to US President George W. Bush and French President NicolasSarkozy in Beijing.Many in Moscow refer to Medvedev as "mini-Putin" -- and are hangingtheir portrait of Putin back up next to that if Medvedev in theirgovernment offices.
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